2026 Could Deliver Republicans A Senate Supermajority

Hands holding a sign reading "The Winner Is..."

With three key Democratic retirements already announced, Republicans are closing in on a filibuster-proof Senate supermajority that could reshape American politics after the 2026 midterms.

Quick Takes

Democratic Senators Jeanne Shaheen (NH), Gary Peters (MI), and Tina Smith (MN) have all announced retirements, creating prime pickup opportunities for Republicans.
NRSC Chair Sen. Tim Scott has set a “stretch goal” of 55 Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterms.
President Trump’s influence is cited as a major factor in Democratic retirement decisions and Republican candidate recruitment.
Republican strategists are eyeing additional potential pickup opportunities in Georgia, Virginia, New Jersey, and New Mexico.
Democrats will need to rely on ticket-splitting voters to defend vulnerable seats in an increasingly challenging electoral landscape.

Democratic Retirements Signal Growing Republican Momentum

A wave of Democratic Senate retirements is strengthening Republican hopes for securing a filibuster-proof 60-seat majority in 2026. Senator Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire became the latest Democrat to announce she won’t seek reelection, joining Senators Gary Peters of Michigan and Tina Smith of Minnesota in creating open-seat opportunities for Republicans. Shaheen explicitly mentioned President Trump’s return to office as a factor in her decision, telling reporters, “It was a difficult decision, made more difficult by the current environment in the country — by President Trump and what he’s doing right now.”

The retirements are particularly notable because Peters and Smith are relatively young by Senate standards, with Peters stating he “never saw service in Congress as something you do your whole life” and Smith indicating she was “ready to prioritize other things — starting with my family.” Political analysts view these early announcements as evidence that Democratic senators recognize the challenging electoral environment they would face in 2026 and are choosing to avoid difficult reelection campaigns.

Republicans Target Multiple Battleground States

Senate Republicans, led by National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Tim Scott, have set ambitious goals for the upcoming midterms. Scott has articulated a vision of expanding the GOP’s Senate numbers to at least 55 seats, with aspirations for even greater gains. “One hundred percent. It’s my stretch goal. The bottom line is, I believe that we can defend our current seats while adding at least two more seats to our numbers,” Scott told reporters when discussing his targets for the election cycle.

“The good news is, with President Donald Trump leading this country, the field is wide open, which means that we have more places to play, and the game is on,” Scott added, emphasizing the importance of Trump’s influence on the Republican strategy for 2026.

Beyond the three states with retiring Democratic incumbents, Republicans are eyeing Senator Jon Ossoff’s seat in Georgia, a state President Trump recently won. Additional potential pickup opportunities exist in Virginia, New Jersey, and New Mexico, according to Republican strategists planning for the midterm cycle. In New Hampshire specifically, former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown and former Governor Chris Sununu are being mentioned as possible Republican candidates for Shaheen’s open seat.

“It was a difficult decision, made more difficult by the current environment in the country — by President Trump and what he’s doing right now,” Ms. Shaheen, 78, said in an interview with The New York Times. https://t.co/Iezq9eqIqC

— NH Journal (@NewHampJournal) March 12, 2025

Democrats’ Ticket-Splitting Strategy

Facing a challenging electoral landscape, Democrats are exploring strategies to defend vulnerable Senate seats in an environment where President Trump’s popularity could create down-ballot advantages for Republicans. One approach involves targeting ticket-splitting voters – those who support candidates from different parties on the same ballot. Recent electoral results suggest this strategy has had some success despite increasing political polarization in American politics.

In the 2024 elections, Democrats managed to win gubernatorial and Senate races in states that simultaneously supported Trump for president. North Carolina elected a Democratic governor despite Trump winning the state, while Arizona voters chose a Democratic senator while backing Trump. These examples provide a roadmap for Democrats hoping to defend Senate seats in 2026, though the midterm environment has historically been challenging for the party controlling the White House.

A Filibuster-Proof Senate’s Impact

Should Republicans achieve their ambitious goal of a 60-seat supermajority, the implications for President Trump’s legislative agenda would be profound. Such a majority would enable Republicans to overcome Democratic filibusters on legislation, potentially allowing for more sweeping implementation of Trump’s America First policies. The Cook Political Report already suggests Republicans are favored to maintain Senate control in the 2026 midterms, with the question now being how large that majority might become.

“We need to continue to have strong fundraising numbers and support our candidates as we defend our seats,” Senator Scott emphasized when discussing the Republican strategy for achieving their ambitious goals. With Democratic retirements mounting and President Trump’s influence shaping the political landscape, Republicans view the 2026 midterms as a historic opportunity to cement conservative control of the Senate for years to come.