China’s quantum computing race threatens to crack U.S. encryption protecting everything from financial systems to classified state secrets, with experts warning the timeline for this capability is “shrinking” rapidly.
Key Takeaways
- China is advancing in quantum technology faster than anticipated and may soon surpass U.S. capabilities, according to intelligence community veteran Denis Mandich
- The 2025 Defense Intelligence Agency threat assessment warns quantum technologies are nearing operational military use by rival nations, particularly in sensing and communications
- Quantum sensors could bypass traditional stealth technology and GPS systems, while quantum communications networks in China are believed to be immune to eavesdropping
- Growing cooperation between China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran on quantum technology presents a serious national security threat
- U.S. federal systems require immediate modernization and implementation of post-quantum cryptography to protect against future quantum attacks
China’s Quantum Acceleration Threatens U.S. Security
U.S. intelligence experts are sounding the alarm about China’s accelerating progress in quantum computing, which represents an unprecedented threat to American national security and technological leadership. Denis Mandich, a veteran of the U.S. intelligence community, has warned that China is quickly closing the gap and may soon develop a “cryptanalytically relevant quantum computer” capable of breaking the encryption that protects sensitive U.S. financial systems and classified information. This development would constitute a strategic shift in global power dynamics, potentially giving China access to America’s most closely guarded secrets and critical infrastructure.
“The timeline is shrinking. The threshold is roughly four thousand logical qubits, and leading programs are racing toward that mark already. Delay is not just risky, it’s irrational. Progress in quantum computing is nonlinear and prone to sudden breakthroughs, and our adversaries have every incentive to conceal milestones until it’s too late. But the real danger isn’t only in the quantum threat, it’s our complacency,” said Denis Mandich, Chief Technology Officer at Qrypt, Inc.
Military Applications Beyond Computing
While quantum computing garners headlines, the 2025 Defense Intelligence Agency threat assessment highlights that quantum sensing and communications technologies are advancing even faster and could be deployed militarily by China and Russia within years. These technologies could render American stealth aircraft visible, disable GPS-guided weapons, and create unbreakable communication networks. China has already built extensive quantum key distribution networks that are believed to be immune to conventional eavesdropping, giving them a significant advantage in secure communications.
“Although select research areas, such as sensing, are advancing more rapidly, non-governmental experts indicate that development of a quantum computer capable of decryption is unlikely in this decade,” stated analysts in the threat assessment.
The convergence of quantum technologies with artificial intelligence, electronic warfare, and microelectronics creates the potential for technological surprise in military confrontations. Quantum sensors that can detect subtle changes in magnetic or gravitational fields could potentially identify submarines deep underwater or underground facilities, eliminating traditional hiding places for strategic assets. These capabilities are being rapidly integrated into military systems by America’s adversaries, potentially neutralizing long-held U.S. advantages in stealth and precision navigation.
China’s Secret Quantum Ecosystem
One of the most alarming aspects of China’s quantum progress is how much remains unknown to U.S. intelligence. According to Mandich, “We don’t even know the names of the quantum companies in China. There’s only a couple of them that are public. The rest of them are completely unknown.” This lack of visibility into China’s quantum ecosystem severely hampers American efforts to accurately assess the threat timeline. China has systematically invested in quantum research while simultaneously penetrating U.S. technology companies to acquire knowledge of American advances.
“They have access to everything that we’ve ever done in all of our companies; all of our companies have been penetrated, as far as we know, many of their employees are in China,” said Denis Mandich, highlighting the extent of Chinese intelligence gathering on U.S. quantum research.
America’s Necessary Response
President Trump’s administration faces a critical national security challenge in addressing this quantum threat. Experts testifying before Congress have emphasized the need for urgent action on multiple fronts: modernizing federal IT systems, implementing post-quantum cryptography, developing a robust quantum workforce through specialized education programs, and maintaining sustained investment in America’s own quantum technologies. These measures are essential not just to maintain technological parity with China but to ensure the security of America’s most sensitive information systems.
“[The] United States needs to develop a strong quantum workforce to maintain its leadership position in quantum technology, hardware, and software development. In doing so, leveraging programs, training, and hiring are key. For example, education programs could provide the qualifications and skills needed to work in quantum technologies across both the public and private sector. Second, sustained investment is particularly important to advance these technologies. To do so, basic funding for research and early development activities is essential,” said Marisol Cruz Cain, Director of Information Technology and Cybersecurity at the Government Accountability Office.
America’s growing awareness of the quantum threat has led to increased focus on developing “quantum-safe” systems that can withstand attacks from future quantum computers. The race is now on to implement post-quantum cryptography across federal systems and critical infrastructure before adversaries reach the capability to break current encryption standards. This represents not just a technological challenge but a test of America’s strategic foresight and national will to maintain technological supremacy in the face of determined competition from China.
