Media Afraid Pollsters Are Giving Democrats False Hope
(TheRedWire.com) – Over the last several months, polls offered Democrats hope that they’ll keep the Senate and have a fighting chance at retaining the House after the upcoming midterm elections. The news came after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in late June, gas prices started to fall, and the party passed the Inflation Reduction Act. Yet, all may not be as it seems. Inflation is stubbornly high, crime rates are still out of control, and Biden hasn’t done the party any favors with his extremely divisive rhetoric. Now, some in the media are sounding the alarm that pollsters are overestimating Democrats and underestimating Republicans, potentially giving the Left false hope.
On September 12, the New York Times reported that Democratic candidates were overperforming in places where polls overestimated Biden in 2020 and Hillary Clinton in 2016. On Monday, September 26, POLITICO reported pollsters knew a problem existed with their numbers. So, will Republicans win with much larger numbers than any poll is predicting in November?
New: Pollsters have spent the past two years racing to fix what went wrong. My deep dive on what they’ve done — and why it still might not be enough to avert another 2020-style meltdown. https://t.co/NEvwXDItaU
— Steven Shepard (@POLITICO_Steve) September 26, 2022
Historically, the party that controls the presidency loses one or both chambers of Congress in a first term, midterm election. In 2020, political pundits expected Republicans to lose seats in the House. Yet, they flipped 15 seats, giving Democrats the smallest majority in nearly a century. In Maine, the RealClearPolitics average of polls projected Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) to lose by 6.5 points. She won her re-election bid by 8.6 points.
So, could the polls be wrong again?
Copyright 2022, TheRedWire.com