New Hampshire Senate Race Dead Even

(TheRedWire.com) – Several generic polls suggest Republicans have a solid chance to flip both the US House of Representatives and the Senate in the 2022 midterm elections. Much of the bad news for Democrats comes as President Joe Biden’s approval ratings tank and independents bail on Democrats in historic numbers. In New Hampshire, incumbent Democratic Senator Maggie Hassan (D-NH) narrowly defeated Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-NH) five years ago. Political observers don’t expect Ayotte to enter the race. Still, Hassan is showing signs of vulnerability.

🚨Warning signs are flashing for Sen. Maggie Hassan as Republicans hope Gov. Chris Sununu will challenge her for Senate next year. @PoliticsReid has more on a new poll out today–> https://t.co/S2ReZQOLvB

— Brandon Conradis (@BConradis) October 21, 2021

Popular New Hampshire Republican Gov. Chris Sununu could be preparing to take on Hassan. The University of New Hampshire Survey Center’s Granite State Poll reveals Hassan trails Sununu by 3 points (45% to 43%). In any election, base turnout is vital, and both candidates will deploy resources to turn them out in high numbers. While necessary, base voters don’t typically decide elections. Independent voters usually determine the winner and loser. In this category, Hassan is in significant trouble. Sununu leads the incumbent among independents by a whopping 40-point margin (63% to 25%).

There is no guarantee that Sununu will be the Republican candidate. The governor hasn’t announced his candidacy, but many enthusiastically question if he will run based on previous public appearances. Currently, retired Army Gen. Don Bolduc is the only Republican announcing he is seeking the party’s nomination. Donald Trump recently praised Bolduc for his condemnation of Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley’s book interview questioning the former president’s fitness for office.

Nonetheless, Gov. Sununu could deal a significant blow to Democrats’ hopes of keeping the Senate majority if he runs, wins the Republican primary, and holds independents’ votes. He has a solid chance of defeating Hassan in November 2022.