THREAT RISING: China Courts Taliban for Trillion Minerals

Missiles in front of Chinese flag background

China’s latest maneuver to court the Taliban with a high-profile invitation to Afghanistan’s acting foreign minister Amir Khan Muttaqi reveals Beijing’s brazen strategy to exploit the power vacuum left by America’s disastrous withdrawal while securing access to Afghanistan’s estimated $3 trillion in mineral wealth.

Key Takeaways

China has invited Taliban’s acting foreign minister Amir Khan Muttaqi for an official visit in late May 2025, signaling deepening diplomatic ties while the West maintains sanctions
Beijing is aggressively pursuing Afghanistan’s estimated $1-3 trillion in mineral resources, particularly lithium and rare earth elements critical for technology manufacturing
China, Pakistan, and the Taliban have formed a strategic trilateral alliance explicitly designed to limit India’s influence in the region
The Belt and Road Initiative is being extended into Afghanistan through Pakistan, creating new economic dependencies that serve China’s regional dominance
Despite claiming to fight terrorism, the Taliban continue receiving Chinese support while promising to suppress the East Turkestan Islamic Movement that threatens China’s Xinjiang region

China Rolls Out Red Carpet for Taliban While West Maintains Sanctions

In a bold display of diplomatic opportunism, China has invited Taliban acting foreign minister Amir Khan Muttaqi for an official visit to Beijing in late May 2025. This high-profile invitation comes after China became the first major power to accept a Taliban-appointed ambassador in February 2025, effectively normalizing relations with the Islamic Emirate while Western nations maintain sanctions. The upcoming visit represents China’s calculated strategy to fill the power vacuum left by America’s chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, establishing Beijing as the dominant external influence in a region rich with untapped resources and strategic value.

China’s diplomatic overtures to the Taliban began in earnest in 2022, when Foreign Minister Wang Yi became the first high-ranking foreign official to meet Taliban leaders in Kabul after their takeover. During that visit, Wang emphasized non-interference in Afghanistan’s internal affairs while criticizing Western sanctions, signaling Beijing’s intent to treat the Taliban as a legitimate governing authority despite their brutal human rights record. This pattern of engagement has persisted, with China consistently advocating for the Taliban’s inclusion in regional forums while providing economic lifelines to the isolated regime.

Mineral Wealth: China’s True Target in Afghanistan

Behind the diplomatic niceties lies China’s true objective: securing access to Afghanistan’s vast mineral resources estimated at $1-3 trillion. Chinese firms are actively exploring Afghanistan’s deposits, with particular interest in the Aynak copper mine and Badakhshan’s lithium reserves – critical components for electric vehicle batteries and other high-tech manufacturing. The establishment of a joint working group in April 2025 aims to streamline Chinese access to these resources, with plans for processing plants that would allow China to control the entire supply chain from extraction to manufacturing.

The economic relationship remains heavily tilted in China’s favor. While Beijing granted zero tariffs on 98% of Afghan goods in 2022, bilateral trade reached only $135 million by March 2025, with Chinese exports dominating the exchange. Afghanistan’s exports to China, though growing by an impressive 82.6%, remain minimal and concentrated in low-value agricultural products like nuts and dried fruits. Meanwhile, Chinese semiconductor exports to Afghanistan surged by a staggering 621% year-on-year in December 2024, highlighting the imbalanced nature of this relationship.

Trilateral Alliance: China, Pakistan, and Taliban Unite Against India

The May 2025 trilateral meetings in Kabul marked a strategic realignment in South Asia, with China and Pakistan openly endorsing the Taliban’s governance while deliberately sidelining India. According to multiple sources, closed-door discussions resulted in explicit agreements to limit India’s role in Afghanistan to basic diplomatic functions and exclude New Delhi from regional economic initiatives. This coordinated effort reflects shared concerns over India’s growing influence in Central Asia and its strategic partnership with the United States – a relationship that threatens Chinese regional hegemony.

Pakistan has played a crucial role as facilitator in this alliance, leveraging its historical ties with the Taliban to advance Chinese interests. The Taliban’s tacit support for Pakistan’s position on Kashmir – including calls for an “impartial investigation” into the April 2025 Pahalgam incident – demonstrates how this trilateral relationship extends beyond economic cooperation into geopolitical alignment. For Pakistan, the arrangement offers enhanced connectivity through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which now includes Afghan routes to Central Asia, reducing Islamabad’s reliance on Indian ports.

“Pakistan, China, and the Taliban have established a trilateral bloc aimed at limiting India’s role in Afghanistan’s future, according to diplomatic sources familiar with recent meetings in Kabul,” reports Kabul Now, confirming the explicit anti-India nature of this alliance.

Belt and Road: Extending China’s Economic Tentacles

A pivotal development in China-Taliban relations is the extension of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) into Afghanistan, formalized during trilateral talks in May 2025. This expansion represents the integration of Afghanistan into China’s global Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), creating new dependencies that serve Beijing’s long-term strategic interests. The plan includes joint industrial parks, special economic zones, and transport networks linking Pakistan’s Gwadar Port to Afghan mining regions – effectively creating a Chinese-controlled economic corridor through South and Central Asia.

The Taliban’s acting commerce minister, Nooruddin Azizi, has eagerly embraced this arrangement, emphasizing Afghanistan’s readiness to integrate into BRI and highlighting supposed improvements in security and regulations for foreign investors. What remains unmentioned is how this integration creates long-term economic dependency on China, as infrastructure loans and development projects typically come with strings attached – a pattern seen in other BRI participant nations that have surrendered strategic assets when unable to meet Chinese loan terms.

The establishment of a shared export processing center in Kandahar, aimed at streamlining mineral exports to Chinese markets, illustrates how this economic relationship prioritizes extracting Afghanistan’s resources rather than developing sustainable local industries. While Taliban officials tout the economic benefits, the arrangement primarily serves to secure China’s supply chains for critical minerals amid global competition, particularly with the United States.

Security Cooperation: Terrorism Double Standard

China’s engagement with the Taliban reveals a glaring double standard on terrorism. While Beijing routinely condemns Islamic extremism and separatism within its own borders, it has willingly embraced the Taliban – a group with well-documented ties to various terrorist organizations. The primary concern for Chinese officials is not the Taliban’s extremist ideology or human rights abuses, but rather ensuring that Afghan territory isn’t used against Chinese interests, particularly by the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), which Beijing accuses of fomenting separatism in Xinjiang.

During Wang Yi’s 2022 visit, Muttaqi pledged to “resolutely crack down” on ETIM, a commitment reiterated in 2025 trilateral talks. This arrangement effectively trades Chinese economic support and diplomatic recognition for the Taliban’s assistance in suppressing groups that threaten China – regardless of the Taliban’s continued harboring of other terrorist organizations that don’t directly target Chinese interests. Reports of Chinese military delegations visiting the Wakhan Corridor in January 2025 suggest heightened border surveillance and coordination with Taliban forces, aimed at preventing any spillover of extremism into China’s restive Xinjiang region.

“The Taliban have promised to address China’s security concerns, including those related to the East Turkestan Islamic Movement,” reports Voice of America, highlighting how counterterrorism cooperation forms a cornerstone of this relationship while ignoring the Taliban’s own extremist governance.

America’s Strategic Failure

The flourishing China-Taliban partnership represents a monumental strategic failure for the United States following its chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021. After two decades of American blood and treasure invested in preventing Afghanistan from becoming a haven for terrorists and hostile powers, China has swiftly moved to fill the vacuum. Beijing now enjoys privileged access to Afghanistan’s mineral wealth, a new market for Chinese goods, and a strategic foothold that extends its influence from East Asia to the Middle East – all without having contributed to the fight against the Taliban.

The Biden administration’s disastrous withdrawal not only abandoned the Afghan people to Taliban rule but also handed China a geopolitical gift – access to critical minerals essential for advanced technology and renewable energy, precisely the sectors where America seeks to compete with China. While the United States maintains sanctions that prevent American companies from engaging with Afghanistan, Chinese firms face no such restrictions, giving them a clear field to exploit resources that could have strengthened America’s supply chains instead of China’s. This development highlights the real-world consequences of strategic incompetence and the high price of abandoning allies and interests in the name of political expediency.