Election Forecaster Bets Large on Trump-Backed Candidate
(TheRedWire.com) – Ordinarily, candidates from the same party don’t compete with one another for votes in a general election. In Alaska, it’s completely different, thanks to ranked-choice voting. That’s making life uneasy for Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), who’s fighting for her political life. Now, one forecaster says her GOP challenger, a Trump-backed candidate, will likely defeat the longtime Senator.
Murkowski has served as one of Alaska’s two senators for two decades. Yet, election forecaster FiveThirtyEight says a GOP hopeful has a 99% chance of winning the midterm, and challenger Kelly Tshibaka (R-AK) has a 53% shot at defeating Murkowski. Former President Donald Trump endorsed Tshibaka.
🚨Would be an important statement to the corrupt establishment & imperative step to getting this nation back on her feet. We’re counting on you Alaska! “Trump-backed Tshibaka projected to defeat 20yr incumbent Sen. Murkowski, election forecaster” https://t.co/pbzVIkJXYQ
— Tammy Bruce (@HeyTammyBruce) October 10, 2022
In January 2021, Murkowski voted to convict Trump after Democrats impeached him in the wake of the January 6, 2021, riot on Capitol Hill. To shore up her support, the Senator also tried to elicit the backing of Democrats in the state. Both actions ignited criticism against her.
Ranked-choice voting injects a unique twist on an election. Alaska has three candidates for US Senate — Murkowski, Tshibaka, and Democratic nominee Patricia Chesbro. The electoral system allows voters to rank nominees in order of preference. A candidate wins by getting 50% + one or more votes in the first round. If not, election officials drop the third-place finisher in round two. Officials tabulate the second choices made by voters to the remaining candidates’ totals. Once a candidate is over 50%, the election is over. While it appears confusing, officials say it gives voters a more comprehensive say in wins.
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