Trump’s Surge in Swing States Puts Harris Campaign on Defense

A woman speaking with an American flag in background.

Former President Donald Trump is gaining ground in crucial swing states, putting Vice President Kamala Harris’s 2024 campaign on the defensive as the race for the White House intensifies.

At a Glance

  • Trump is leading Harris in key battleground states like North Carolina, Arizona, and Georgia
  • Harris maintains a slim 2-3 point lead in national polls, but her advantage in crucial Electoral College states has narrowed
  • Voters in Sun Belt states express concerns about a potential Harris administration
  • The 2024 election could be decided by a handful of votes in these key swing states

Trump’s Resurgence in Battleground States

Recent polls reveal a significant shift in voter sentiment across key swing states, with former President Donald Trump gaining momentum against Vice President Kamala Harris. This surge in support for Trump is creating substantial challenges for the Harris campaign, particularly in states that have traditionally leaned Democratic.

According to a new Florida Atlantic University poll, Trump now leads Harris by 47% to 45% in Georgia and 48% to 47% in North Carolina among likely voters. These narrow margins underscore the intense competition in these crucial battleground states, where every vote could potentially determine the outcome of the 2024 election.

The Electoral College Challenge

While Harris maintains a slight edge in national polls, her lead in key Electoral College states has significantly diminished. In Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania – states that form the so-called “blue wall” – Harris’s advantage has narrowed to just 1-2 points. This development poses a considerable challenge for the Harris campaign’s path to victory.

“The close distribution of support between the two major party candidates suggests that Georgia and North Carolina remain highly competitive,” said Kevin Wagner, Ph.D., professor of political science and co-director of the PolCom Lab. “Among likely voters, the undecided population, though small, could still play a crucial role in determining the outcome, particularly in a tight race such as this one.”

The situation is particularly precarious for Harris in Sun Belt states like Arizona, where Trump has regained the lead after losing in 2020. This shift indicates a growing dissatisfaction among voters in these regions with the current administration’s policies and a nostalgic view of Trump’s presidency.

Voter Sentiment and Information Sources

A critical factor in this tightening race is the perception of Trump’s presidency among voters in key swing states. Many believe that Trump improved their lives during his term and express reservations about a potential Harris administration. This sentiment is particularly strong in Sun Belt states, where economic concerns and border security issues are top priorities for voters.

“Voters across the Sun Belt say that Donald J. Trump improved their lives when he was president — and worry that a Kamala Harris White House would not — setting the stage for an extraordinarily competitive contest in three key states, according to the latest polls from The New York Times and Siena College.”

The polls found that Mr. Trump has gained a lead in Arizona and remains ahead in Georgia, two states that he lost to President Biden in 2020. But in North Carolina, which has not voted for a Democrat since 2008, Ms. Harris trails Mr. Trump by just a narrow margin.

The polls of these three states, taken from Sept. 17 to 21, presented further evidence that in a sharply divided nation, the presidential contest is shaping up to be one of the tightest in history.”

Another crucial aspect of this race is how voters are receiving their information. The Florida Atlantic University poll revealed that cable news remains the primary source of information for a significant portion of likely voters: 41% in Georgia and 39% in North Carolina. This reliance on cable news highlights the importance of media messaging in shaping voter opinions.

“The divide in how voters get their news reveals just how fractured political media has become,” said Carol Bishop Mills, Ph.D., professor of communication and co-director of the PolCom Lab.

The Road Ahead

As the 2024 election approaches, both campaigns face significant challenges in these key battleground states. For the Harris campaign, the task ahead involves convincing voters that their vision for America aligns with the values and priorities of hardworking Americans. Meanwhile, the Trump campaign will seek to capitalize on its current momentum and expand its support base.

With all seven swing states currently close enough to go to either candidate, the importance of every single vote cannot be overstated. As proud Americans committed to protecting our freedoms and way of life, it is more crucial than ever to stay informed about the shifting political landscape and make our voices heard at the ballot box.

  1. Sources:

  2. FAU/Mainstreet Poll: Trump Edges Harris in Georgia and North Carolina
  3. Trump Shows Signs of Strength in Sun Belt Battlegrounds, Polls Find
  4. Has Harris pulled ahead of Trump? The state of the 2024 polls, explained.
  5. Exclusive: Harris widens lead over Trump to 47%-40%, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds
  6. Seven swing states set to decide the 2024 US election
  7. Boosts in Democratic excitement help Harris reset the race against Trump — CBS News poll