Trump’s Rising Support Among Hispanic Voters in Battleground States

Crowd holding a "Trump Make America Great Again" sign.

Trump’s rising support among Hispanic voters in key battleground states could reshape the 2024 presidential race, as new polling data reveals a significant narrowing of the gap between him and Harris.

At a Glance

Trump has closed the gap with Harris among Hispanic voters to just 12 points, down from 28 points in September
Trump currently leads in 4 out of 7 battleground states: Arizona, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Georgia
Hispanic voter support for Trump has risen to 40%, significantly exceeding his 2020 performance of 30%
Harris’s Hispanic voter support (52%) falls notably below Biden’s 2020 numbers (68%)
Current polling shows an extremely tight race: Harris 47%, Trump 46% among registered voters

Trump’s Growing Hispanic Support

Recent polling data indicates a significant shift in Hispanic voter preferences across key battleground states, potentially altering the landscape of the 2024 presidential race. Donald Trump has made substantial gains among Hispanic voters, narrowing the gap with Kamala Harris to just 12 points, a dramatic reduction from the 28-point difference observed in September.

This surge in support for Trump among Hispanic voters could prove decisive in states like Arizona and Nevada, where the Hispanic electorate represents a growing and influential voting bloc. The shift is particularly notable in Arizona, where Trump currently holds a 2.6-point lead, the widest margin among the seven battleground states.

Battleground State Dynamics

The changing demographics in key swing states are reshaping the electoral landscape. Arizona’s Hispanic voter population has more than doubled, with Trump showing strong performance in recent polls. Nevada, traditionally leaning Democratic among Hispanic voters, is experiencing increased Republican support. These shifts could significantly impact the election outcome.

“Donald Trump has made inroads with Hispanic voters in the final days of the presidential race, according to a poll released Wednesday by The Economist and YouGov.” – Newsweek

While Harris maintains an overall lead of 52% to 40% among Hispanic voters nationally, Trump’s increasing support in this demographic presents a direct challenge to traditional voting patterns. In battleground states, 56% of Latino voters plan to vote for Harris, while 31% support Trump, a much narrower margin than seen in previous elections.

Key Factors Influencing Hispanic Voters

Economic concerns and immigration policy remain top voting issues for Hispanic voters. Trump’s stronger polling on immigration and the economy could be contributing to his gains in this demographic. However, Harris maintains support among women voters across all swing states, which could prove crucial if turnout mirrors that of 2020.

“In 2020, according to exit polling, President Joe Biden won 68 percent of the Latino vote overall, beating Trump’s 30 percent.” – Newsweek

The current polling shows an extremely tight race overall, with Harris at 47% and Trump at 46% among registered voters. This razor-thin margin underscores the potential impact of shifts in Hispanic voter support, particularly in closely contested states where even small changes could tip the balance.

Implications for the 2024 Election

As the election approaches, both campaigns are likely to intensify their outreach to Hispanic voters, recognizing their pivotal role in securing victory. The trend of increasing Hispanic support for Trump, if it continues, could reshape electoral strategies and potentially lead to surprising outcomes in traditionally Democratic-leaning areas.

With Trump currently leading in four out of seven battleground states and making significant inroads with Hispanic voters, the 2024 presidential race remains highly competitive. The final weeks of the campaign will be critical as both candidates vie for the support of this increasingly influential voting bloc, potentially determining the outcome in key swing states and, ultimately, the presidency.