Trump Problems Will Only Get Worse If Convicted

Gage Skidmore from Surprise, AZ, United States of America, CC BY-SA 2.0 , via Wikimedia Commons

( – Former President Trump’s ability to weather controversies that might sink other political candidates has been remarkable, yet recent developments suggest he may not be entirely immune to the laws of political gravity. A new survey by Bloomberg and Morning Consult shows that in key battleground states, 53 percent of voters would not back Trump if he were found guilty of a crime, and 55 percent would also withhold their support if he were to be sentenced to jail. These statistics could have substantial implications for any potential future election, considering how closely contested Trump’s previous victories were in 2016 and 2020.

The prospect of a criminal conviction poses a significant threat to Trump’s political ambitions, as GOP strategist Doug Heye, a former communications director for the Republican National Committee, asserts that it could be a dealbreaker in an election where either Trump or President Biden could emerge victorious.

The Bloomberg poll was conducted across seven pivotal states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Interestingly, it revealed that even among those who voted for Trump in 2020, 20 percent would be either “somewhat unwilling” or “very unwilling” to vote for him again if he were convicted.

However, the accuracy of these polling figures remains uncertain, and Trump, currently without any criminal convictions, leads by six points among registered voters in battleground states, according to the same Bloomberg poll.

History has shown that some dissatisfied voters may still support a candidate whose views align most closely with their own, despite reservations. For instance, in 2016, Trump’s chances of victory seemed bleak following the release of the Access Hollywood tape, which contained crude comments about women. Nevertheless, he overcame the odds and secured the nomination.

It’s worth noting that Trump’s support among Republicans is significantly higher than among the general public, with 79 percent of Republicans viewing him favorably compared to only 40 percent of the broader populace, according to an Economist/YouGov poll.

As Trump faces a barrage of attacks from the Biden campaign and its allies, he continues to assert his innocence in the face of multiple charges. His trials in New York, related to alleged hush money payments, are set to commence on March 25, with another trial in Georgia proposed for August 5, involving charges of conspiring to overturn the election. A federal trial pertaining to attempts to overturn the 2020 election may also be on the horizon, although it remains uncertain due to Trump’s claim of presidential immunity from prosecution.

While Trump’s political future hangs in the balance, he must navigate the dual challenges of securing the GOP nomination and defending himself against legal charges. The allocation of his time and resources between these two endeavors will be crucial, as it could impact his ability to rally his base and court persuadable voters.

In the ever-unpredictable world of politics, making firm predictions about Trump’s future remains a challenge, given the absence of historical precedent for his unique situation.

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